Ekuphindukeni kwayo kusukela ekwehleni kuka-2020, intengo yeBrent yadlala ngothando ngama- $ 70 / bbl. Amanani aphakeme ngo-2021 asho ukugeleza kwemali okuphezulu kwabakhiqizi, mhlawumbe ngisho nokuphakama kokusetha amarekhodi. Kule ndawo, ukubonisana ngemithombo yemvelo yomhlaba Izinkuni Mackenzie uthe ama-opharetha kudingeka aqaphele.

"Ngenkathi izintengo ezingaphezu kuka- $ 60 / bbl zizohlala zingcono kuma-opharetha kune- $ 40 / bbl, akuyona yonke indlela eya ohambweni olulodwa," kusho UGreig Aitken, uMqondisi nethimba lokuhlaziya izinkampani likaWoodMac. “Kunezinkinga ezingapheli zokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokuphazamiseka kwezimali. Futhi, ukushintsha kwezimo kuzokwenza ukwenziwa kwamasu kube nzima kakhulu, ikakhulukazi maqondana nokwenza amadili. Futhi kukhona izixakanxaka eziza njalo, lapho ababambiqhaza beqala ukubheka izifundo ezifundwe kanzima njengemibono ephelelwe yisikhathi. Lokhu kuvame ukuholela ekwenziweni kwemali eningi nokwenza ngokungenzi kahle. ”

UMnu Aitken uthe ama-opharetha kufanele aqhubeke nokusebenza ngokweqile. Amapulani wempumelelo ku- $ 40 / bbl kusengamapulani okuphumelela lapho amanani ephezulu, kepha kunezinkinga eziningi opharetha okufanele bazikhumbule. Kokukodwa, ukwehla kwamandla emali kwezindleko zokuthengwa kwemali akunakugwenywa. UWood Mackenzie uthe ukuthengwa kwezinto sekukhishiwe, futhi ukushesha komsebenzi kuzoqinisa kakhulu izimakethe okwenza izindleko zikhuphuke ngokushesha.

Okwesibili, imigomo yezimali kungenzeka iqinise. Ukukhuphuka kwamanani kawoyela kuyimbangela ebalulekile yokuphazamiseka kwezimali. Izinhlelo eziningana zezimali ziyaqhubeka futhi zisethelwe ukukhuphula isabelo sikahulumeni ngamanani aphezulu ngokuzenzekelayo, kepha eziningi azikho.

“Izidingo 'zesabelo esilinganayo' zizwakala kakhulu ngamanani aphezulu, futhi ukuqinisa amanani kuzobe kunganakile,” kusho uMnu Aitken. “Yize izinkampani zikawoyela zimelana nezinguquko ezimeni zezimali ngokusongelwa ukutshalwa kwemali okuncane nemisebenzi embalwa, lokhu kungadikibaliswa yizinhlelo zokwehlisa umoya noma zokuvuna izimpahla ezifundeni ezithile. Izinga eliphakeme lentela, intela entsha yenzuzo ye-windfall, ngisho nentela yekhabhoni kungenzeka ukuthi ilinde emaphikweni. ”

Ukunyuka kwamanani nakho kungavimba ukwakhiwa kabusha kwephothifoliyo. Ngenkathi izimpahla eziningi zithengiswa, ngisho nasezweni lama- $ 60 / bbl, abathengi basazoba yindlala. UMnu Aitken uthe izixazululo zokushoda kwemali ayishintshiwe. Abathengisi abangaba nabo bangamukela inani lentengo, bathengise izimpahla zekhwalithi engcono, bafake okungahle kwenzeke esivumelwaneni, noma babambelele.

"Ukukhuphuka kukawoyela okuphezulu, kugxila kakhulu ekubambeleleni kwimpahla," esho. “Ukuthatha intengo yemakethe ebikhona bekuyisinqumo esilula uma amanani nokuzethemba kuphansi. Kuba nzima kakhulu ukuthengisa izimpahla ngenani eliphansi endaweni yentengo ekhuphukayo. Impahla ikhiqiza imali futhi opharetha abanengcindezi encane yokuthengisa ngenxa yokwanda kwemali yabo nokuguquguquka okukhulu. ”

Kodwa-ke, amaphothifoliyo asezingeni eliphezulu abalulekile. UMnu Aitken uthe: “Kuzoba nzima ukubamba ulayini ngamanani aphezulu. Izinkampani zikhulume kakhulu ngokuqondiswa kwezigwegwe, zigxile ekwehlisweni kwezikweletu nokwanda kokwabiwa kwamasheya. Lezi yizimpikiswano ezilula ukuzenza lapho uwoyela engu- $ 50 / bbl. Lesi sinqumo sizohlolwa ngokwenyuka kwamanani amasheya, ukukhuphula imali nokwenza ngcono isimo somkhakha kawoyela negesi. ”

Uma amanani entengo abamba ngaphezu kwama- $ 60 / bbl, ama-IOC amaningi angabuyela emuva ezindaweni zawo zezezimali ngokushesha ukwedlula uma amanani engu- $ 50 / bbl. Lokhu kunikeza indawo enkulu yokungena kosomandla emandleni amasha noma ekuhlukaniseni nge-decarbonization. Kepha lokhu kungasetshenziswa nasekutshaleni kabusha ekuthuthukiseni okuphezulu.

Abazimele bangabona ukukhula kubuyela masisha kuzinhloso zabo: iningi labazimele baseMelika linomkhawulo wokuzibophezela wokuzibuyisela kabusha okungama-70-80% wokugeleza kwemali okusebenzayo. Ukwabiwa komsebenzi yisona siphokophelo esiyinhloko sezinkampani eziningi zaseMelika ezikweletwa kakhulu, kepha uMnu Aitken uthe lokhu kusashiya isikhala sokukalwa okulinganisiwe ngaphakathi kokunyuka kwemali. Ngaphezu kwalokho, bambalwa abazimele bamazwe omhlaba abenze uhlobo olufanayo lokuzibophezela koguquko njengama-majors. Abanaso isizathu esinjalo sokuguqula ukugeleza kwemali kuphume uwoyela negesi.

“Kungenzeka yini ukuthi umkhakha uphinde uthwaleke futhi? Okungenani, ukugxila ekuqiniseni kuzonikeza ingxoxo mayelana nokuphakama kwentengo. Uma imakethe ibingaqala ukukhula ngomvuzo futhi, kungenzeka. Kungathatha imiphumela emikhulu yokuthola imali ukuze kuvele, kepha umkhakha kawoyela unomlando wokuba yisitha sawo esibi kakhulu, ”kusho uMnu Aitken.